February 3, 2017 -- After each election, Forward Observer analyzes spending by California ballot initiative campaigns, in order to identify best practices and emerging trends, and to assist clients as they budget and plan for the next election cycle.

Eight of 13 well-funded campaigns that outspent their opponents in 2016 were successful - a success rate of 61%. This was a decline from 2014, when all four "big spender" campaigns won their contests. 

We have developed a projection for successful "Yes" and "No" campaigns, based on the experience of three prior election cycles. Going into the 2016 campaign cycle, we projected successful "Yes" campaigns would spend on average $17.2 million. Campaigns that spent above that amount in this cycle had a 83% success rate; campaigns spending below that had a 50% success rate. 

Our projected budgets for successful "Yes" and "No" campaigns in 2018 are up sharply - Read our full report here.